By Nick Diminich, 2015, and Brian Wagner, 2015
With the upcoming 2013 Major League Baseball season, Baseball Writers Nick Diminich and Brian Wagner have their previews and predictions. This week we cover the NL Central.
The NL Central is a little different this season, with the Houston Astros moving to the AL West. This change, however, doesn’t change the dynamic in the division. The Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, and Milwaukee Brewers have dominated the division over the past few season while the Pittsburgh Pirates seem to be on the verge of joining them in the race to win the division. The Chicago Cubs seem to be a few years away from being a serious contender but they will show flashes of their future this season. Here are our thoughts:
Chicago Cubs
Source: nburgie/Flickr
Brian: 2013 will likely mark the 105th year in a row that the Cubs do not win the World Series. I can’t imagine how tough that is to hear for Cubs fans. Theo Epstein has his ongoing plan to break this Curse of the Billy Goat and it will be a few more years to see if he can actually do it. However, there is much to be excited about in Wrigley Field this season. For one, Starlin Castro is slowly, but surely making progress into being one of the best shortstops in the game. Additionally, Anthony Rizzo is also on the rise to be top a first baseman in a few years. These two players alone should be enough to bring people into the ballpark, not that the Cubs have any issues doing that. Jeff Samardzija had a great 2012 season, ranking 4th in K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings ratio) in his first year as a full-time starter and hopefully for the Cubs it is a sign of things to come. This can quite possibly be another 100 loss season for the Cubs as this team finished in the bottom 5 in homeruns, runs scored, and team batting average but fans will see signs of a bright future and hopefully an end to the curse. Predicted Finish: Last Place
Nick: There isn’t much to say about the Chicago Cubs other than you know you’re going to have to “wait ‘til next year!” Sure they have a young star shortstop in Starlin Castro and a blossoming star in first baseman Anthony Rizzo but there’s not much help anywhere else at the moment. Matt Garza who was once an ace, is starting the season on the DL which hurts the Cubs in the fact that his trade value is down at the moment. If he can come back and have a strong few months look for Theo Epstein and Co. to pull some strings and ship him off to a contending team for a solid prospect or two. The Cubs aren’t in an abysmal state like some other franchises but they’re still at least 2 years away from getting out of the cellar. They certainly have a higher upside than most franchises with Epstein as the President and the draw of a big city like Chicago (not to mention Wrigley Field and it’s history) so the future isn’t so dim. Watch out for the Cubs in a few years. Predicted Finish: Last Place
Cincinnati Reds
Brian: It was a disappointing finish to the 2012 season for the Reds when after being up 2 games to none in the NLDS against the Giants, they lost 3 straight to be eliminated. This season, we’ll see if they can live up to the potential they have. Cincinnati’s lineup should be ranked in the top ten in baseball. 2010 MVP Joey Votto will be healthy this season while rightfielder Jay Bruce has emerged has one of the top power hitters in the game, ranking in the top ten in homeruns and in ISO (Isolated Power). Veteran Ryan Ludwick looked like the Ryan Ludwick of old and, hopefully for the Reds, he can continue that production. For a team that ranked in the bottom 5 in stolen bases, adding Shin-Soo Choo to leadoff is a great addition as he stole 21 bases last season and one would think his 16 homeruns may increase playing in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark. This team also has great pitching. They were tied with the Washington Nationals for the best team ERA in the National League last season as well and fourth in FIP. This was due in part to the Reds great bullpen and star closer Aroldis Chapman. Thankfully, the Reds decided to keep him as a their closer this season as dominant closers like Chapman are extremely rare. Sean Marshall had an incredible season out of the bullpen as did Jonathan Broxton after coming over in a trade from Kansas City. I have mentioned before that a few teams have great set-up to closer combinations but this, and that of the Atlanta Braves, has to be the best in baseball. Their starting rotation isn’t bad either. Their starters ranked 5th in baseball in ERA last season and ranked 4th in WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched). Johnny Cueto, who finished 4th in the Cy Young voting last season, and Mat Latos each had excellent seasons to give the Reds one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. Homer Bailey looks like he is starting to realize his potential after having a solid 2012 campaign in which he threw a no-hitter. Bronson Arroyo also had a good season, bouncing back from a horrible 2011 season. Predicted Finish: 1st Place
Source: Keith Allison/Flickr
Nick: The Cincinnati Reds were a few outs away from defeating the Giants in the NLDS last season when, well, one thing lead to another and they lost. Three games in a row. However, the core of the team is returning at full strength, former MVP Joey Votto is looking for a redemption season and flashy All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips looks to stay ever improving. These two players anchor the right side of the infield while other home grown products Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart anchor the left side. The outfield is improved with the acquisition of proven veteran Shin-Soo Choo and the re-signing of Ryan Ludwick is a great move for the protection of Votto in the middle of the lineup. The biggest question for the Reds this offseason was will Aroldis Chapman, the fire baller left hander from Cuba, be able to make the jump from lights out closer to starter and that seems to be answered with Chapman passing up the opportunity to start so he can remain closer. That is definitely the Reds best chance at winning because there is always a “growing pains” period when switching pitching positions that would definitely not benefit the Reds. They did sign closer Jonathan Broxton in the event that Chapman did start just for back-up and Broxton’s arm adds great depth to the bullpen as a set-up man. Jay Bruce, the power hitting right fielder, is still searching for his signature season which many scouts thought he would produce right away, but he seems to be right on the cusp of it. If I were a gambling man I’d put my money on the Reds to win it all this year due to their seasoned, returning core as well as knowing the heartbreak of losing the way they did, similar to the 2003-2004 Boston Red Sox. Dusty Baker will be managing to save his job and sometimes desperation produces the best performance. Look for the Reds to win this division and defeat their other National League foes in the playoffs to win the pennant. They’re no Big Red Machine, but then again, who is? Predicted Finish: 1st Place
Milwaukee Brewers
Source: Steve Paluch/Flickr
Brian: The talk of the team this time last year was 2011 MVP Ryan Braun’s PED allegations. The talk of the team this year is 2011 MVP Ryan Braun’s new PED allegations. For someone with a lot of distractions last offseason, Braun sure delivered with another MVP worthy season in 2012. In fact, he finished second in the voting last season. If Braun has the same response this season, the Brewers will again have one of best offenses in baseball. Milwaukee hit the most homeruns in the National League last season, a year after losing slugger Prince Fielder which is extremely impressive, stole the most bases, and scored the most runs in the National League. First baseman Corey Hart will miss the first part of the season, however. Hart is a tough blow as he hit 30 homeruns and had a slugging percentage of .507 (over .500 is above average) last season. Alex Gonzalez, who is normally a shortstop, will fill in for Hart as he recovers from his injury. Rickie Weeks will be a vital player for the Brewers this season as he had a down season where he batted a mere .230. One can expect Weeks to have a better season this year as his .285 BABIP last year was way below his career average, .305. In addition to Weeks, Carlos Gomez finally had a breakout season last year hitting 19 homeruns and 37 stolen bases. If the 27-year-old Gomez improves his production, rather than just being a one-year wonder, Milwaukee may be able to contend for a wild card spot. The problem with this team is their bullpen. Their relievers finished last in the Major Leagues in ERA and also blew the most saves of any other team. The team will hope that John Axford can return to his pre-2012 form while new addition Burke Badenhop can solidify the backend of the bullpen. Predicted Finish: 3rd Place
Nick: The Milwaukee began 2012 reeling despite Ryan Braun somehow being allowed to play after his failed drug test. They turned it on late but ultimately came up short of the postseason. Well, another offseason, another PED rumor for Braun but of course he’ll be in there on Opening Day. He is part of a very good lineup; with former Mets youngster Carlos Gomez singing a 4 year extension to play centerfield for the Brew Crew as he finally comes into his own. Corey Hart has successfully moved to first base and his bat has followed as well. Rickie Weeks is a former All-Star who looks to rebound from a somewhat down year. What’s the problem you may ask? That would be the starting pitching. Yovanni Gallardo is only an ace in name at this point after a few decent but disappointing years. The Brewers are still waiting for him to break through with a big 17, 18, 20 win season but it just hasn’t happened. Besides Gallardo and newly sign Kyle Lohse, there aren’t many recognizable names on the entire pitching staff. The offense should produce a bunch of runs led by Braun along with veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez. No amount of testosterone or biogenesis magic pills will be able to help Braun stop the amount of runs the starting pitching and bullpen will give and all he’ll be able to do is watch the ball (or chase it) from his left field position. This is the team that should have jumped to the American League, back to where they started but instead the Astros got extorted. I’m sure Braun will be crying for a switch in a few years when all he can do is play DH. Next-to-last place finish for Milwaukee. Predicted Finish: 4th Place
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brian: Is this the year that the streak ends? For those of you who don’t know what streak I’m referring to it’s the Pirates streak of 20 straight losing seasons. It’s incredible that this team has not finished with a record over .500 since I’ve been alive. But then you have the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates. This team came so close last year to breaking the streak and this year they definitely have a chance to finally do it. Led by MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates will want to improve their offense that was really nothing special last season. Pittsburgh finished in the bottom 5 of the league in batting average and OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging percentage). The addition of Russell Martin this offseason to play catcher will help their power numbers but he also will not improve the team’s K% (strikeout rate), which was the second worst in baseball last season. A lineup with McCutchen, Garrett Jones, and breakout Pedro Alvarez may be decent, but the problem is that it doesn’t match up with the likes of the Brewers, Reds, or the Cardinals. Where this team finishes will rely heavily on their pitching. Veteran A.J. Burnett had his first good season since 2009, leading the Pirates starters in ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. He is, however, 36 years old. At that age, a pitcher is a major question mark as a team doesn’t know when his body is going to break down. Burnett has already shown signs of decline with his horrible 2010 and 2011 seasons with the Yankees. Wandy Rodriguez was solid for the Pirates down the stretch but he is also reaching a point in his career where signs of breakdown start to become apparent. The Pirates do have Gerrit Cole down in the minor league who has the potential to be a star. It is possible for a pitcher of his talent to come up and spark this team, however, I don’t believe that their starting pitching can compete with others in their division. This team will come close again but extend the streak to 21 seasons. Predicted Finish: 4th Place
Source: Keith Allison/Flickr
Nick: The last time the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning season was when they were lead by one of the best players of all time, Barry Bonds. Yeah, that long ago. 1992 to be exact. Nowadays, their best player is another stunning young outfielder, Andrew McCutchen who will help the Pirates break the 20-year-old curse and get them over the hump of over .500. They will not make the playoffs but this season should give the young squad some good winning experience and lead to great things to come in the near future. McCutchen is a superstar at this stage in his career and only getting better. He has all the potential necessary to go 30/30 this year and instill tons of fear into opposing pitchers. If you weren’t familiar with him up until now you will definitely know who he is by the end of the season. Pedro Alvarez, a Washington Heights native, looks to build on his promising 2012 and show why he was a top pick in the 2008 draft along with Starling Marte, a player with a ton of potential. The pitching is a little iffy, with no dominant ace but solid starters A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. The bullpen should be good enough to hold down most victories and we all know Clint Hurdle can manage; he led the 2007 Rockies to the franchise’s only World Series appearance. This will be the team to watch next year and in 2014 due to their upcoming talent and increasing experience. Predicted Finish: 3rd Place
St. Louis Cardinals
Source: Keith Allison/Flickr
Brian: The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the most successful franchises in the last decade. No team has gone to the National League Championship Series more times than the Cardinals since 2003. This team knows how to sustain excellence that few other teams can. Veterans outfielders Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran each had excellent season in 2012 while first baseman Allen Craig and catcher Yadier Molina have cemented themselves as one of the best players at their respective positions. This lineup, which is virtually the same as last year’s, finished second in the National League in batting average and third in OPS. The Cardinals also scored the second-most runs in the league last year, behind rival Milwaukee Brewers. The difference between the Brewers and the Cardinals is their pitching. From top to bottom, this team has a good enough rotation to compete with anyone in the division. The only problem their pitching has is health. Closer Jason Motte will miss the first part of the season while Adam Wainwright and Jamie Garcia each have had their fair share of injury issues. Lance Lynn was a surprise to many people going 18-7 with a very good 3.78 ERA. Mitchell Boggs, who was excellent out of the bullpen last year with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, is a more-than capable replacement as closer for the injured Jason Motte. Injuries aren’t only limited to the pitching staff for the Cardinals. 2011 World Series MVP David Freese will also begin the season on the DL and St. Louis will miss that bat in the middle of their lineup. Holliday and Beltran are always a risk of injury as they are older players who may break down more easily. At 100% health, St. Louis is the most balanced team in the National League. There are no real weakness on this team besides the health concerns. If this team can avoid long-term injuries, it will be a fun race between the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals to see who makes the playoffs and who won’t. Predicted Finish: 2nd Place
Nick: The St. Louis Cardinals always seem to be contenders, after all they are the second most decorated franchise in MLB history. Losing Chris Carpenter is a major blow for their rotation. They have a potential 3 All-Star outfield with Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran and developing star John Jay. David Freese is good young player for the middle of the lineup and currently the best catcher in baseball plays for them, Yadier Molina. Molina was in talks of winning MVP last year so don’t be surprised if he scoops up the award this year or in the next few years. The bullpen for the Cards is a solid one with a good closer in Jason Motte. The loss of Rafael Furcal really kills this team in every way possible losing a leadoff hitting shortstop will. Young Pete Kozma will have to step up to participate in a less than overwhelming double play combo with Daniel Descalso. Allan Craig is a very good bat for the middle of the lineup however he is not a natural fielder so the defense will take a hit. This team will compete as it always does but it will not have enough firepower to compete with Cincinnati for the division or other teams in the NL for the Wild Card. If they do sneak into the playoffs, don’t be shocked if they make a run however due to Beltran’s uncanny ability to perform in the postseason as well as Yadi Molina’s leadership. Predicted Finish: 2nd Place
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